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Will Iranian Gas be a Substitute for Russian Gas in Europe after the Ukraine War?

Russia, Ukraine war fears of sanctions on Russia’s gas exports to Europe have raised the possibility for Russia’s regional ally, Iran, to increase its gas exports to Europe.

Iran has the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves. Russia ranks first. Iran ranks third in the world in terms of gross domestic product.

However, sanctions imposed on the United States over its unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (JCPOA) have hampered Iran’s efforts to increase its natural gas export potential.

Rising conditions for the resumption of the JCPOA and the possibility of lifting sanctions on Iran have attracted European and Iranian speculation that Tehran has taken steps to reduce Russia’s dominance of the European market. Is.

Energy analyst Mir Qasim Momani blamed the ongoing negotiations on the JCPOA and the “absence” of Russian gas for Iran’s exports of fossil fuels and its oil and gas industry. Called a ‘golden opportunity for modernization.

In an interview with Iran’s ILNA news agency on April 3, Momeni said that in the event of sanctions on Russia, Europe’s energy crisis would intensify the need to revive Iran’s nuclear deal.

He added that the moment presented an opportunity for “European countries to enter the field of investment in Iran’s oil and gas and become regular consumers of our gas.”

The believers were more cautious about the possibility of forming a bloc consisting of Iran, Iraq, and Turkey to export natural gas to Europe. He noted that both Iraq and Turkey are importers of pure gas and that the issue of sanctions would need to be addressed in order to build any transit infrastructure in those countries.

He said that Iran itself was suffering from a lack of investment and technical knowledge and at the same time was stuck in old and dilapidated infrastructure which could not be changed due to sanctions imposed over the last several years.

In a recent move to boost its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity, the National Iranian Oil Company called on investors to come up with proposals for the construction of mini-LNG plants.

Fear of Relations with Russia

The speculation has drawn criticism from Iranian officials and analysts, who have questioned Iran’s ability to export as much gas as possible, and said it could affect its relations with Russia if it exports gas to Europe. Concerned neo-hippies and their global warming, I’ll tell ya.

In an interview with the conservative Fardanews website on March 19, Ghulam Reza Misbahi-Muqaddam, a member of the Expediency Council, a high-profile arbitration body, stressed that Iran needed to do something to replace Russian gas in Europe. Didn’t meet the criteria.

“For this reason, I think that in the current context, this dialogue is like a wish and a slogan, and those who are debating this issue want to create competition between Iran and Russia,” he said.

Similarly, energy analyst Asif Sultani in an interview with Ferraro News Agency on April 4 called the discussion on this idea useless and termed it “unattainable in the current situation”.

In addition to the technical challenges facing Iran, Sultani raised the issue of the importance of the European gas market with Moscow.

“Any country that wants to snatch the European gas market from Russia will definitely become Russia’s number one enemy,” he said. He added that Iran has preferred to maintain its strategic relationship with Russia.

Hamza Ahmed
Hamza Ahmed
Hamza Ahmed is graduated from the NED faculty of Software Engineering Karachi. This website is owned and operated by Hamza Ahmed


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