Even The Worst Wars End
As in the result of World War II, the fighting continued till death. Most wars end in agreements that no one is completely satisfied with. But at least it stops the bleeding. And often, despite the worst of the battles, the warring parties gradually restore their old and less hostile relations.
If we are lucky, this is the beginning of the process for peace between Russia and Ukraine. Anger over Russia in Ukraine will last for decades. But both sides want peace: Ukraine because its cities and villages have been destroyed. And Russia wants peace because (according to the Ukrainian president) it has suffered more military and equipment damage than the two violent wars in Chechnya. (However, it is impossible to confirm the Ukrainian president’s claim.)
But no one would want to sign a peace agreement that could lead to their downfall. Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to maintain his reputation. Ukrainian President Zelensky has demonstrated his diplomatic skills and is willing to say or do anything acceptable to him and his people so that his country can be liberated from Russian forces.
President Zelensky’s Main Goal
Ukraine to emerge as a united country after all this, not as a Russian province or region. This is the impression that Russian President Putin had before the start of the war.
President Putin’s focus is on announcing his victory. It will not matter to them if their entire administration thinks that Russia has unnecessarily intervened in Ukraine. Nor do they care that about 20% of Russians, who know the facts of the world, say that Putin put everything at stake based on his will and lost.
This battle is being fought in an attempt to gain the support of those who listen and believe everything on state TV. Although Maria, the brave editor on Russian TV, held up a banner in the background saying that what you are being told is propaganda, some viewers will continue to believe in Putin’s campaign.
So will President Putin still look good to the Russian majority after this devastating war? This could be possible if Ukraine’s constitution states that it will not become a member of NATO in the future. President Zelensky has already made preparations when he asked NATO for something he could never give (demand for a no-fly zone in Ukraine). Then he became frustrated and criticized NATO. Zelensky went so far as to say that if NATO had such an attitude, it would not be eligible to join.
There is nothing better than a clever and wise political strategy. NATO is being accused of something it can easily get out of. And Ukraine will regain its independence.
But This is Just an Easy Step
It will be difficult for Zelensky and Ukraine to join the European Union immediately. Russia is not happy about this. However, there are ways to get out of it. The hardest thing for Ukraine to digest is that Russia will occupy its territory. It would be a violation of the commitment it had made to the signing of international agreements to protect Ukraine’s borders.
The loss of Crimea in 2014 would still be somewhat acceptable for Ukraine. Russia has indicated it will occupy areas of eastern Ukraine where it has tightened its grip.
Joseph Stalin invaded Finland in 1939 and was part of the former Russian Empire. He was confident that his forces would take control of it at any moment. Putin thinks the same about Ukraine in 2022.
Stalin’s generals were afraid of him and apparently to save his life they told Stalin that he was thinking right. But obviously, they were not right.
The Winter War lasted until 1940, and the Soviet Army suffered a major setback. Finland was justified in taking pride in nationally resisting a superpower. He must have sacrificed some of his territories because dictators like Stalin and Putin want to get out of this situation as if they have won. However, Finland got the most important and most lasting thing: the opportunity to become a sovereign and fully independent nation.
The situation is similar for Ukraine. It has responded to several Russian attacks that have made Putin’s forces appear weak and ineffective. Ukraine can do what Finland did. Ukraine could save its national identity if Putin’s forces do not occupy Kiev and more areas of Ukraine. As Finland did in 1940.
But if Vladimir Putin wants to take the lead, he will have to use the most dangerous weapon ever used. The fighting has been going on for three weeks and in the current situation, no one should have any doubt as to who will be the real winner of the war.