When things don’t go according to plan, wars can easily get out of the hands of those who started them.
Although it is impossible to know what Vladimir Putin had in mind when he invaded Ukraine on February 24, most analysts believe that he was expecting a quick victory in a few days.
A month later, according to US military analysts Benjamin Johnson, Tyson Weitzel, and JB Baranco, the war has turned into a war of instability in the region, with Russia using brutal tactics to crush Ukraine’s resistance.
Writing for the Atlantic Council, he said: “We anticipate that Russia will probably move towards a ceasefire, cut off Ukraine’s supplies, cut off its access to the Black Sea, and finally a famine. This is because Ukrainian farmers are unable to manage their crops at the moment. But how expensive will this long war be for Russia?
War is an Expensive Adventure
Ed Arnold, a research fellow on European security at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the BBC: I am. ‘
“You have to manage the supply of food to feed the war machine and the soldiers, you have to store a large quantity of ammunition and fuel.”
At present, Russian logistics is facing problems in the war with Ukraine and there is ample evidence to point them out. The most obvious is that Russian military vehicles were left on the field after a defect in this vast area.
Arnold said he was not prepared because he thought the operation would last only two days.
James Stavridis, a retired Admiral of the US Navy and dean of the School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, says Russia’s coffers are drying up and its costs are rising.
Although the country has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves (about ً 600 billion), much of that money is now locked up in Western banks due to economic sanctions.
How Much Does Russia’s War Cost?
Russia has lost at least .9 19.9 billion in direct military spending in the first 23 days of the attack, according to the Center for Economic Recovery.
He estimated that the Kremlin had lost فوجی 9 billion in damaged military hardware.
This amount must include the cost of launching cruise missiles and the potential gross domestic product (GDP) loss over the next 40 years (based on manpower losses).
Ukraine claimed on March 19 that 14,400 Russian soldiers had been killed so far in the war.
Total expenditures will also need to include evacuation, treatment of wounded soldiers, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and feeding troops.
None of these estimates can be independently verified. Experts consulting for the BBC were cautious in their assessment of the nature of the uncertainty, although they agreed that operating a war machine was too expensive.
When Will Russia Run Out of Money?
It depends on how effective Western economic sanctions are.
Importantly, it also depends on whether European countries can afford to ban Russian gas imports. This is a big challenge because Russia supplies about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports.
It is also unclear how much the international money transfer agency SWIFT extends the withdrawal of several Russian banks from the payment system, enabling international money transfers.
If the agency extends sanctions, Putin will have no alternative means of receiving foreign currency payments.
Ultimately, the extent to which Russia’s resources can be diverted depends on its allies, and especially on a particular ally.
Experts say China’s ability to influence the war is crucial, but there is no consensus among analysts on what role it intends to play in the war.
Beijing has expressed deep concern over the situation, but described the attack as a “military operation” and Deputy Foreign Minister Li Yucheng said on March 19 that Western sanctions were “provocative.” Are
He added that the measures were unilateral and were depriving Russian citizens of foreign assets “for no apparent reason”.
“History has shown that sanctions cannot solve problems,” Lee said. Sanctions will only hurt ordinary people, affect the economic and financial system, and worsen the global economy. ”
Renaud Foucault, a senior lecturer at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, argues that China could be “serious” and important to Russia in the long run.
“If sanctions remain in place, Russia will be cut off from its key trading partners, apart from China and Belarus,” Foucault said.
This dependence cannot be exaggerated, says Maxim Mironov, a professor at a business school in Spain.
“China will buy resources from Russia at a much lower price and sell products to Russia at a higher price,” he told the BBC.
They will consider Russia its colony. China is the only winner in this war.
The Economy is in a Deep Slump
Moscow insists that Western sanctions cannot isolate a large country like Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on March 5 that “the world is too big for Europe and the United States to isolate a country, especially a large state like Russia.”
But the Russian currency, the ruble, has fallen, the stock market has largely closed, inflation is already high, and interest rates have doubled. More than 400 foreign companies have left the country.
Some estimates suggest that the Russian government may default on its debt this year.
“Russian industry is coming to a standstill,” says Mironov.
Foucault says two factors will largely determine whether the cost of the war will be too high for Putin in the coming weeks.
The first is whether Russia’s military and defense industry can survive without technical imports from the West. Will or will not